Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,448$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,553.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(97,553.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,156$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(667 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,118.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,118.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,942$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $124,375$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,797.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128,797.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,336$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(264 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,689.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,689.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $62,780$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,185$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,830.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,830.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $229$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(26.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 23.9)}}\) (asimptote \(229.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,363$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $864$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(854.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(5.34 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 11.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14.3\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $553$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,599$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,922.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,922.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $119$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.71 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{339.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(339.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,816$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,619$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,293.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,293.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{0.050t}\) (doubling rate \(6.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.4}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40.4\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,883$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,928$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(963 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,028.1\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $603$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(52.1 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(629.0\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,201$ on 2020-05-02
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,459$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(328 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,004.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,004.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $176$ on 2020-05-02
Best fit exponential: \(22 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(213.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,518$ on 2020-05-02