Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,448$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97,553.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(97,553.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,156$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(667 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,118.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,118.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,942$ on 2020-05-02

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,375$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128,797.6}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(128,797.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,336$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(264 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,689.0}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 28.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,689.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,780$ on 2020-05-02

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,185$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,830.5}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(15,830.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $229$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(26.9 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229.9}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 23.9)}}\) (asimptote \(229.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,363$ on 2020-05-02

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $864$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{854.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(854.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(5.34 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.3}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 11.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $553$ on 2020-05-02

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,599$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(105 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,922.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 60.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,922.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.71 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{339.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(339.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,816$ on 2020-05-02

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,619$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(31 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,293.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,293.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{0.050t}\) (doubling rate \(6.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40.4}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(40.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,883$ on 2020-05-02

Philippines⮸

Population $109,581,078$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,928$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(963 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,028.1}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,028.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $603$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(52.1 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(629.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,201$ on 2020-05-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,459$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(328 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,004.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,004.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $176$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(22 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(213.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,518$ on 2020-05-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Thailand recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 82%
Taiwan* recovered 68%
Iran recovered 63%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 44%
Uzbekistan recovered 38%
Israel recovered 35%
Malaysia recovered 33%
Turkey recovered 22%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,959$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(90.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,266.6}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,266.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,021.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,021.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $736$ on 2020-05-02

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,966$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(767 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,883.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 18.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,883.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(19.5 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.6}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 10.1)}}\) (asimptote \(53.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-05-02

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,793$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(4.68 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,280.0}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10,280.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $250$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(49 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{257.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(257.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,360$ on 2020-05-02

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $432$ on 2020-05-02

Best fit exponential: \(72.7 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{425.5}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(425.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-05-02